Trump Threatens to Double Mexico Tariffs Unless Migrant Caravans Are Stopped
President Donald Trump has threatened to immediately double tariffs on Mexican imports unless Mexico stops migrant caravans travelling toward the United States border, raising the prospect of fresh disruption to North American trade.
The warning came in a post on Truth Social on Thursday, in which Trump said the migrants “will not be accepted” and demanded action from Mexico City.
“Here we go again!” Trump wrote. “They will not be accepted! MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED.”
What Trump said
Trump said Mexican authorities, Texas’ newly elected governor, the Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement had all been notified of his position. “There will be no leniency!” he added, according to Reuters.
The president did not say which tariffs would be doubled, whether existing exemptions would remain in place, or when any new duties would take effect. FreightWaves reported that the warning leaves businesses guessing about the scope of any increase, just as the two countries negotiate trade issues including duties on Mexican steel and other manufactured goods.
The threat also lands as tariffs are already the subject of a Supreme Court hearing on the president’s emergency powers, and after the administration cut South Africa and Rwanda from a duty-free trade programme from January.
The caravan at the centre of the dispute
Reuters reported that an estimated 1,500 people, mostly from Central America, set off on Tuesday from Tapachula, a city in southern Mexico near the Guatemalan border. Spanish news agency EFE reported that the group initially included roughly 2,000 people.
The migrants are hoping that the Democrats’ victory in last week’s US midterm election could open pathways for them to live and work in the United States, according to Reuters.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pushed back on Trump’s account of the situation at her daily morning news conference on Thursday. She said Mexico has prevented migrant caravans from reaching the US border since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
“Since President Trump came into office, no migrant caravan has reached the northern border,” Sheinbaum said, according to a translation of her remarks.
Sheinbaum acknowledged that two migrant caravans are currently travelling through southern Mexico, but said Mexican authorities are working to manage the groups, providing information and humanitarian assistance rather than allowing them to reach the border.
What doubling would mean for trade
Mexico is the United States’ largest overall trading partner, with bilateral commerce totalling $96.34 billion in September. Laredo, Texas, the nation’s leading international trade gateway, handled $38.9 billion in two-way trade that month, and the US trade deficit narrowed in September as imports set a record.
Current US tariffs on Mexican imports generally include 25% duties on most goods that do not qualify for preferential treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), no tariff on qualifying USMCA-compliant goods, 25% on Mexican-made automobiles, and 50% on steel and aluminium products.
It remains unclear whether the threatened increase would apply to non-USMCA goods, vehicles, steel and aluminium, or a broader range of imports. The automotive, industrial equipment, electronics and metals sectors are especially dependent on cross-border supply chains, with components and finished products frequently moved by truck between factories and customers in both countries.
Higher tariffs could raise costs for US importers, disrupt manufacturing supply chains and affect freight volumes through major gateways such as Laredo.
Talks already under strain
The tariff threat comes during a sensitive period for US-Mexico trade relations. The two countries have been negotiating tariff reductions and broader trade arrangements after Trump chose in July not to extend the USMCA framework, according to Reuters.
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin posted on social media following Trump’s warning, Reuters reported, as the administration pressed Mexico to act.
For now, the threat remains a warning rather than a formal order. No date has been set, no list of affected goods has been published, and it is not clear whether USMCA exemptions would survive a doubling. What happens next is likely to turn on Mexico’s formal response — and on whether the caravans in southern Mexico are halted before they move further north.
