Wall Street Braces for Midterm Week: Apple Earnings, Election, Jobs Report
Wall Street heads into one of the busiest weeks of the year with investors braced for a run of events that could each move markets on their own. Apple and Palantir report earnings on Monday, Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday, and the October jobs report lands on Friday — all against the backdrop of a technology sell-off that left the major indexes nursing losses at the end of October.
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures, giving traders their first read on sentiment after a bruising week. Overnight futures moves do not always carry into the regular session, but after Friday’s sharp declines, the open will be watched closely for any sign of stabilisation.
A bruising end to October
Last week started well for stocks but ended badly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.85% for the week, the S&P 500 shed 0.6% to a six-week low, and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 2% after a 2.9% dive on Friday left it at a three-month low, near its 200-day moving average, according to Investor’s Business Daily. The small-cap Russell 2000 managed a 1.3% weekly gain but gave back much of it on Friday.
The trigger was earnings from the biggest spenders on artificial intelligence. Alphabet and Amazon both reported surging cloud businesses, but investors focused instead on how much cash they are burning on data centres and AI infrastructure. Intel’s weak guidance added to the pressure, and software stocks had a particularly poor week after disappointing results from ServiceNow, Fortinet and Twilio.
Not every corner of the market fell. Health care, retail, financials and industrials all finished the week higher, and energy stayed strong as oil prices climbed. U.S. crude futures rose 0.8% for the week to $104.12 a barrel, up more than 15% for the month, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.93% for the week — a sign of money seeking safety as AI stocks fell.
Monday: Apple and Palantir open earnings week
Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, with a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern. It is the first earnings call under John Ternus as chief executive, and it arrives with Apple shares up roughly 27% to 28% so far this year — a strong run that leaves little room for disappointment.
Analysts expect earnings of about $1.99 a share on revenue of roughly $113 billion, up about 11% from a year earlier, according to forecasts cited by market previews. Investors will focus on iPhone sales, particularly the iPhone 18 Pro range, services revenue, gross margin, and guidance for the current quarter, as well as any effect from rising memory costs and supply constraints.
Palantir also reports after the close on Monday, offering another read on demand for AI software. With more than 100 S&P 500 companies due to report during the week — about 31% of the index — the two Monday reports will set the tone for a heavy earnings calendar that also includes AMD, Qualcomm, Arm, Shopify, Pfizer, Amgen, McDonald’s and Uber.
The economic calendar starts on Monday too, with the Institute for Supply Management’s October manufacturing index due at 10 a.m. Eastern. The consensus forecast is 54.7, slightly above September’s 54.5, with the new orders, production, employment and prices components all in focus as a gauge of factory demand and cost pressures.
Tuesday: Americans vote, and AMD reports
Tuesday, November 3, is midterm election day. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, along with about a third of the Senate, and control of Congress is at stake. Polls point to Democrats retaking the House, while the Senate is seen as more closely contested, according to market previews.
For investors, the result matters well beyond politics. A Democratic Congress could step up scrutiny of AI companies and complicate future crypto legislation, while also pushing to restore some health care subsidies — a prospect that could lift hospitals and health insurers. Strategists have also warned that a strong Democratic night could weigh on AI stocks, while a better-than-expected night for Republicans could buoy them. As one market note put it, what matters is the market’s reaction to the result, not the result alone, and early reactions have a habit of reversing.
AMD reports after the close on Tuesday, giving investors a fresh read on chip demand just days after Intel’s stumble. Shopify and Pfizer report before the opening bell, and the September job openings survey and factory orders data are due at 10 a.m. Eastern.
The rest of the week builds to Friday’s jobs report
Wednesday brings Qualcomm and Arm earnings, along with the ADP private payrolls report and the ISM services index. Thursday brings jobless claims and more earnings, including Airbnb. But the week’s final test arrives on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October employment report.
Forecasts for October payroll growth range from about 50,000 to 80,000 jobs, against just 29,000 in September, with unemployment expected to hold around 4.2%. The report is the last major employment reading before the Federal Reserve’s December 9 meeting, after the central bank held its target rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with two officials preferring another increase. Traders are now pricing a strong chance of a rate rise in December, so a hotter-than-expected jobs report could reinforce that bet, while a soft one could ease it.
Investors should also keep an eye on oil and geopolitics. President Donald Trump has signalled he could renew strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, a prospect that has helped lift fuel prices in recent weeks. With crude already at multi-month highs, any escalation would add another layer of uncertainty to a market that already has plenty.
What could move markets most
Three forces are likely to decide whether this week steadies Wall Street or extends the sell-off. First, earnings must show that AI spending is producing returns, not just costs — Apple and AMD are the key tests. Second, the election result must be absorbed without a sharp policy shock, particularly for AI, crypto and health care stocks. Third, the jobs report must thread a narrow needle: strong enough to calm recession fears, but not so strong that it locks in another rate rise.
After a week in which the major indexes slipped back below their 50-day moving averages, the cautious advice from market watchers is to stay defensive, protect gains and wait for clearer signals rather than chase a rebound. This week should provide those signals in abundance — the question is whether investors will like what they hear.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Figures cited are forecasts or reported estimates and may change.
Frequently asked questions
When do Dow futures open this week?
Dow Jones futures, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures, open at 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, November 1.
When does Apple report earnings?
Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, November 2, with an earnings call at 5 p.m. Eastern.
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 House seats and about a third of Senate seats on the ballot.
When is the October jobs report released?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October employment report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday, November 6.
Why did stocks fall last week?
Investors sold technology stocks after earnings from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel raised concerns about the cost of AI spending and weak chip guidance, dragging the Nasdaq 2% lower for the week.
Sources and further reading
- Investor’s Business Daily — Dow Jones futures, weekly index moves, oil and Treasury yields, midterm market implications: Dow Jones Futures Loom After Stock Market Sell-Off; Apple, Palantir, Midterm Elections In Focus
- Reuters via Gulf Times — midterm elections, earnings and jobs data looming for the U.S. market: Midterm elections, earnings, jobs data loom for US market
- TradingKey — week-ahead calendar for November 2–6, including Apple, Palantir, AMD and payrolls: The Week Ahead: US Midterm Elections and October Nonfarm Payrolls
- Regards of Wall Street — earnings dates, jobs report forecasts and Fed meeting context: Stock Market Week Ahead: Earnings, Fed Dates and Setups for This Week
