Peltola Leads Sullivan by 637 Votes as Alaska Senate Race Nears a Tie
Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by just 637 votes in Alaska’s Senate race, with about three-quarters of the vote counted and roughly 75,000 ballots still to be tallied, according to Associated Press figures.
The Associated Press has not called the race. Neither candidate has passed 50 per cent of first-choice votes, so under Alaska’s ranked-choice system the seat will be decided by a tabulation scheduled for 18 November — unless one of them crosses the majority threshold as more ballots are counted.
A 637-vote gap with 75,000 ballots left
The count, as reported by the Associated Press, puts Peltola, the Democrat, on 102,962 votes (48.2 per cent) and Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, on 102,325 (47.9 per cent). Republican Gerald Heikes has 4,846 votes, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. — a different man who shares the senator’s name — has 3,600.
Counting resumes on Tuesday 10 November, when the Division of Elections is due to begin tallying early votes cast from 30 October onwards, along with questioned ballots. Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive through 13 November from inside the United States and through 18 November from overseas. Certification is targeted for 25 November.
The next batch is expected to be the biggest remaining one, covering almost all of the outstanding early vote and a large group of absentee ballots, according to Alaska Public Media. Those ballots, mostly from communities off the road system, are the ones both campaigns are watching most closely.
Ranked-choice maths puts the race near a tie
Peltola’s lead is real but fragile. An Alaska News analysis of the state’s ballot-level data found that once voters’ second choices are taken into account, the race is effectively tied — and on the ballots counted so far, Sullivan would come out about 330 votes ahead after transfers.
The analysis found that Peltola would finish ahead if she wins a little more than half of the remaining votes cast for her or Sullivan, about 50.3 per cent. If she wins 52 per cent of the remaining vote, she would finish about 2,500 votes ahead. A Newsweek ranked-choice estimate reached a similar conclusion, putting Sullivan narrowly ahead on the ballots counted so far.
Those are scenarios, not a forecast. They rest on the Associated Press estimate that about 74 per cent of the vote has been counted, which would leave about 75,000 ballots outstanding — and the threshold barely moves if the final number is somewhat higher or lower.
Why the remaining ballots could favour Peltola
The early and absentee ballots counted so far have favoured Peltola, which is one reason prediction markets are pricing her as the near-certain winner despite the ranked-choice maths. Polymarket has Peltola at 98 cents and Kalshi at 97.3 cents, implying traders expect the uncounted ballots to lean her way.
That confidence is not a result. The same markets were pricing the race as a toss-up before the count began, and the final margin will be decided by ballots that have not yet been opened, not by trading. What the prices do show is that the shape of the uncounted vote — early and absentee ballots from rural Alaska — is widely expected to help the challenger.
The “other Sullivan” and the Justice Department fight
The race has already drawn an unusual legal fight. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who is not related to the senator, took 3,600 votes — more than five times the current gap between the two leading candidates. The Justice Department sued Alaska on 22 October, asking a court to block certification if Peltola won by fewer votes than Daniel J. Sullivan received, but a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department’s lawsuit on 1 November.
Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the department’s involvement on 8 November, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union and CBS’s Face the Nation. The dismissal has not ended the argument: the Justice Department’s challenge, and the presence of a second Sullivan on the ballot, remain part of the story as the count continues.
What happens next
The count on 10 November is the next milestone, followed by the arrival of the last mail ballots and the ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November. If neither candidate passes 50 per cent, second choices will be transferred and read aloud, and the winner will be the candidate who reaches a majority after those transfers.
The seat is one of the last undecided contests of the midterms. Democrats are projected to take control of the Senate when the new Congress sits in January, and Mississippi’s Senate race also remains uncalled. Alaska, with its 637-vote margin and 75,000 ballots still to count, is the closest race left — and the one most likely to be decided by the ballots that arrive last.
