Politics

Trump Heads to Iowa and Kansas as Final Polls Give Democrats an 8-Point Lead

Sarah Mitchell

• November 1, 2026 • 0 Comments

President Donald Trump returns to the campaign trail on Sunday, November 1, with rallies in Iowa and Kansas, two days before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress. He arrives in the final stretch with national polling pointing in the Democrats’ direction, record early voting already banked, and a Senate map that has turned unexpectedly competitive in states Republicans have long counted as safe.

The trip takes Trump to the Farm Belt, where his party is fighting to hold Senate seats rather than simply defending its majorities. In Iowa, a state he won by double digits in 2024, polls now show Democrats tied with or ahead of Republicans in many races. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, the Senate contest is also far closer than Republicans expected.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, along with 35 Senate seats. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and a narrow edge in the House. Losing either chamber would allow Democrats to block much of Trump’s agenda for the final two years of his second term and to open investigations into an administration that has so far faced largely compliant Republican majorities.

What the final polls show

The RealClearPolling average of the generic congressional ballot — the question that asks voters whether they would back a Democrat or a Republican for the House, without naming candidates — puts Democrats at 51.4% and Republicans at 43.2%, a lead of 8.2 points. Other averages point the same way, even if the size of the gap varies by pollster: CBS News/YouGov has Democrats ahead 53% to 45%, while a Strength in Numbers/Verasight survey of likely voters puts them ahead 54% to 42%.

Because the House is decided district by district, a national lead does not translate neatly into seats. The Cook Political Report’s likeliest outcome is Democrats winning between 227 and 240 House seats. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take the majority, with Republicans currently holding 219 seats to the Democrats’ 214 and two vacancies, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Prediction markets are more confident still. Traders on Polymarket on Friday gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 69% chance of winning the Senate. Markets reflect bets, not surveyed voters, but the direction matches the polling: the House looks likely to change hands, while the Senate remains genuinely in play.

Trump’s own standing is central to that picture. Recent polling puts his approval at about 37% to 38%, with disapproval at about 60% to 61%. A Marquette Law School poll put his approval in Wisconsin at 37% and disapproval at 61%.

Why Iowa and Kansas matter

Trump spent Saturday at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida after weeks of campaigning across multiple states. His Sunday stops — Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas — were briefly in doubt during the week, when the Republican National Committee said they had been replaced by tele-rallies, before the White House confirmed they were back on. That sequence is a story in itself: a president in the final days of a campaign is spending his last Sunday shoring up the Farm Belt.

In Iowa, Reuters/Ipsos polling found Trump’s approval among rural Americans fell to a new low of 45% in October. The state’s Senate and House races have tightened accordingly, with Democrats competitive in contests that would once have been written off. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall in recent polling — a Washington Post-Schar School survey put Hamilton ahead 52% to 43%, while an Emerson College survey showed a tighter 50% to 47% margin.

The pattern extends beyond the two rally states: a CNN poll put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 — a steep climb that recent state polling has made plausible.

Michigan’s unity problem, Alaska’s counting fight

Two other races illustrate how unsettled the final weekend remains. In Michigan, El-Sayed’s campaign has been publicly at odds with Representative Haley Stevens, the Democrat he defeated in the primary. It was unclear whether Stevens would attend a Detroit unity event with him on Sunday, after El-Sayed’s campaign asked her to skip his events through Election Day so as not to distract from the campaign’s central issues. Stevens has demanded that he condemn an outside group’s advertisement that she says blames Israel for high grocery prices. Michigan State University political scientist Matt Grossmann said the continued visible division was unhelpful to El-Sayed just before Election Day, even as polls show he has largely consolidated Democratic support.

In Alaska, meanwhile, the legal fights that have shadowed the campaign continued into the weekend. The administration said on Saturday it would likely take its fight over thousands of California mail ballots to the Supreme Court, after a federal judge rejected the Justice Department’s request to block California from counting mail ballots from more than 20,000 registered voters it alleges are likely noncitizens. In Alaska, federal prosecutors are investigating whether aides to Democratic challenger Mary Peltola helped recruit a candidate who shares a name with Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan; both camps have denied coordination.

Record early voting, record spending

More than 52 million Americans have already voted, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab — a midterm record, up from nearly 46 million before Election Day in 2022. Texas alone accounts for more than seven million early votes. Midterm advertising has reached $11.2 billion, the highest ever for a midterm cycle, and the cost of living is voters’ top concern, named by 36% of those asked in a Harris poll.

For Trump, who campaigned on Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina, and urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot, the stakes are personal as well as political. He will not appear on a ballot again. What Tuesday decides is how much power he can exercise through Congress for the rest of his presidency.

What happens next

Polls open across the country on Tuesday, November 3. Results in close races may take days to confirm, particularly in Alaska, where officials have warned the Senate race could take up to two weeks to decide. A large storm system could also affect turnout, bringing rain and possible severe thunderstorms to parts of the Plains and the South on Election Day.

NationWire will follow results as they come in on Tuesday night, with state-by-state coverage of the Senate battlegrounds and the fight for the House.

Frequently asked questions

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships are on the ballot.

What do the final polls say?

The RealClearPolling generic ballot average puts Democrats ahead 51.4% to 43.2%, an 8.2-point lead. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control of Congress.

Where is Trump campaigning on the final Sunday?

President Trump is holding rallies in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, on Sunday, November 1, after the events were briefly replaced by tele-rallies and then restored.

How many Americans have already voted?

More than 52 million Americans had voted early, in person or by mail, before the weekend — a midterm record, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

When will we know who won?

Many races will be called on Tuesday night, but close contests — notably Alaska’s Senate race — could take days or even up to two weeks to decide.

Search KopaNews