Trump’s Midterm Defeat May Hand China an Edge in Trade Talks
The midterm drubbing of Donald Trump’s Republicans may strengthen China’s hand in trade talks with Washington, but Beijing is unlikely to revel in the misfortunes of a US president whose successor could prove less accommodating.
That is the assessment of political analysts speaking to Reuters, who say the election result leaves Trump in a weaker domestic position just as the two sides prepare to resume negotiations. US voters angered by rising living costs, worsened by Trump’s trade wars with China and other countries, turned on his party in Tuesday’s vote and handed Democrats control of Congress.
The political humbling should make Trump more wary of unsettling a fragile trade truce with Beijing, the analysts said, giving China a potential advantage in talks set to resume later this month.
Two meetings, one deadline
Attention now turns to two meetings on the calendar. Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month, and again in Miami in December for the G20 summit.
At stake is a truce in a trade war that expires in January. The truce averted a major shock to the global economy last year, after Trump slapped triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods shortly after returning to office, saying he wanted to address a trade imbalance he described as “killing” the United States.
How those meetings go will show whether the truce holds. If it expires in January without a new deal, tariffs could snap back and the fragile calm between the world’s two largest economies would be at risk.
How the midterms changed the calculation
Trump’s weakened position at home is the key change. After the midterms, he could be even less willing to upset the stable relationship he has developed with China, said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University who advises China’s Foreign Ministry.
Beijing, for its part, has been careful not to gloat. China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that the midterms were an internal matter for the United States and that Beijing would continue to manage differences and expand cooperation with Washington.
The caution reflects a longer calculation. A president who cannot get his way at home may still be the most predictable partner Beijing has, and the next occupant of the White House could take a harder line on China than Trump has.
Short-term gain, longer-term risk
Analysts warn the picture is not simply good news for Beijing. A Trump blocked at home could seek foreign-policy wins to compensate, and a Democratic Congress may press him on issues China regards as red lines, including arms sales to Taiwan.
The election outcome could also embolden other countries to resist Trump’s combative trade policies, Reuters reported, and give them more reason to slow-walk investment pledges they made to stave off tariffs. That would complicate Washington’s position in trade talks well beyond China.
For now, though, the immediate effect is a president with less room to escalate. US stock futures steadied after Democrats seized Congress, as investors bet that divided government would calm Washington and reduce the risk of abrupt policy shifts.
Friction beyond the negotiating table
The trade talks are not the only front in the US-China relationship. Technology friction has continued in parallel: Oracle scrapped a $7 billion chip deal with Tencent under US pressure, and China blocked SoftBank’s $5.4 billion takeover of ABB’s robotics division this week.
Both episodes show how far the rivalry has spread beyond tariffs into chips, robotics and the supply chains that connect the two economies. The trade truce may hold the tariffs at bay, but it has not settled the wider contest.
The talks resuming later this month will be the first test of whether a weakened Trump can still cut a deal with Beijing — and whether China can press an advantage without pushing him into a corner.
